In our last update we looked at the full month of June and how flight activity played out across the industry. Volume showed 6% below 2021 with a trend that indicated a further decline. Two weeks further into the year, we are seeing air charter volume leveling off at just about 10% below 2021 activity levels.
The chart below from the 15th shows -11.3% for July MTD, but the way the calendar is working for these updates we now have 7 more days behind us. Looking at the MTD as of yesterday, we are looking at -10.8% with the past 7 days coming in at -9.6%. This indicates that we are seeing volume settle in at this new level. The charts show that the daily peaks and valleys are in line with last year, just at slightly less volume.
If you would like to see the most recent daily (as of yesterday) chart of charter activity that I reference above, you can browse to: https://www.tuvoli.com/industry-trends/ We recently added an industry-trends section to the Tuvoli website where you can see this chart on a daily basis. When you get to the page above, click the link "View air charter flight volume as of 07-20-2022" to see the chart. This is updated daily.
If you know of anyone else who would like to get these email updates, you can also direct them to this page where they can fill out a form to be automatically added to the list.
In the last update, we pointed out that Part 91 traffic was still well above 2021, but that the trend was bringing it closer to last year's numbers. Fast forwarding to July 15th, we're seeing that the lines for last year and this year have essentially converged with only a 1.5% delta in the 2nd week of July. That said, volume for the most recent week is higher, clocking in at 4.9% above 2021. This is another signal pointing to a level-off.
Summing it up, the data reflects stabilization where in prior weeks we had seen declining volume levels. Volume remains strong in comparison to historical norms and if anything we are truly seeing just how resilient the market has become.
The IATA fuel report shows that wholesale jet fuel has dropped further from $159.5 per barrel to $146.4. For the most recent week the price was essentially flat for the first time in recent memory.
Both of the above charts were pulled from IATA's website: https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
Our lagging indicator on fuel price, the AirNav fuel report, is now reflecting the decrease in fuel price that we talked about in the last report. The average price across the US has dropped to $6.80 from $6.96 two weeks ago. Signals are that we should be past the peak on fuel pricing and into an area of more predictable pricing albeit still at higher prices than we're used to.
In prior weeks so far this summer, we spoke about a "back to business" trend. From what we're looking at now, it looks like the cities might just be getting too hot, and vacation season is truly kicking in. As such we are seeing declining traffic in the major metro areas. This week, it even reversed the trend for Teterboro, which had been a stand-out in terms of traffic this summer.
Looking across the airports in the USA, one that stuck out in the first half of July was Naples, FL. This airport has been a growing business jet destination over the past two years, even so it was surprising to see YoY growth at this airport when many more typical summer destinations are showing YoY declines in traffic.
For those who wish to join the call to see the breakdown by size class, the top 50 O/D pairs, and 50+ other airports, join the call at 3pm and I will walk through the complete deck.
Again, if you would like to see the charter chart on a daily basis, you can do so now by browsing to https://www.tuvoli.com/industry-trends/
Best Regards,
-Greg
